MLB Play of the Days (POD's): 6-5 This Post Season
109-60(65%) +120.73 units of profit! (+$120,730)
Last night's game was exciting that's for sure. I really thought Giardi should have left Sabathia in to be honest, but he went to his bullpen that is looking more and more like something he does not trust. Tonight Burnett will go and will he choke or will he get an early lead from the Yankees and crusie?
For me I like this pitching match up it favors the Yankees big time as Pedro Martinez goes for the Phillies. Phillies are 8-2 when Pedro pitches and he has been excellent including against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS. But! and this is the hard part, because I'm a huge Pedro fan and I have to let that go if only for tonight. He has not faced a quality opponent or an opponent even close to what he will face tonight. Let me go through the numbers below, the first number will be the teams rank for HR on the year and the second rank will be the teams rank for hitting.
Cubs (15th, 26th), Dbacks (12th, 27th), Metsx2 (30th, 5th), Braves-x2 (22nd, 11th), Astros (25th, 18th), Giants (29th, 25th), Nationals (21st, 23rd) Dodgers (23rd, 4th).
Wow are you kidding me the talent level that he has gone up against is extremely weak particularly in the HR category as he has faced an average HR rank of 23rd. We all know Pedro is prone to the long ball in fact I've seen him give 3 HR to the first batter of the game and in one game at Wrigley he was lucky he didn't give up 5 HR in a start as the wind was blowing in. Beautiful weather is going for tonight, and it's a Yankee team that is ranked #1 in the league in HR he hasn't faced a top 10 hitting team with the exception of the Mets who were 5th in average and the Dodgers 4th. First I hardly count the Mets realistically as a top 5 hitting team despite their .270 average on the year. While the Dodgers went into a huge slump against everyone. His average opponent was ranked 16th in hitting and that's counting the Mets twice. Yankees are ranked #2 in hitting and they are also coming off a loss.
Yankees coming off a home loss this season with the exception of their 5 straight losses from 5/2-5/7 are 14-2 overall and 10-6 against the run line. I leave out those 5 straight losses, because this is a completely different team than they were in May. The last time they lost two straight at home was to Baltimore on 9/11, and before that it was June 18th to Washington. Two sub par teams that the Yankees just lacked concentration against. Concentration is at an ultimate high here tonight as last night they just ran into a very very sharp pitcher. I expect them to take huge advantage of the match up tonight and work Pedro who has not pitched in 12 days and when he did pitch it was in warm weather. Although it won't be cold, it still won't be warm for him to get a rhythm. I'd love to see Pedro succeed, but my analysis just does not tell me he will against this Yankee team.
Burnett on the other hand is no prize either he's not a big time clutch pitcher and he will likely give up some runs and get into a groove and then give up some runs at the end of his innings. However, I do expect the Yankees to score 4+ runs off Pedro and we'll see Pedro leave before the 5th inning.
Jeff Nelson behind home plate is 23-15 on the year for the over and has a K/BB ratio of 1.74. Home teams are 19-7 in Nelsons L26 inter league games behind home plate. The Over is actually 16-5 in his last 21 behind the home plate. I believe he has a smaller strike zone than most, and he'll give the fans what they want... RUNS!
Well I mentioned how I like the Yankees in a bounce back game as they are 10-6 against the run line in those situations. Burnett also has a lot on his side. The Yankees are 14-4 at home when he pitches with a 3.38 ERA and he also is going at night in relatively warm conditions 59 degrees at game time. AT night he has a 3.05 ERA. Expect a game that you might expect out of Burnett's idol Roy Halladay. Anywhere between 6 and 8 strong innings giving up at least 2 ER but no more than 4.
PROP Bets: 1-Dime Each
Run in 1st inning Yes! -110
Total Bases:
ARod over Howard @ pk
Jeter -120 over Victorino[/]
Yes, there will be a run in the 1st inning I expect Pedro to be shaky early has this is the inning to get at him. Will he be able to be poised enough to get through a patient Yankee lineup.
Alex Rodriguez will come alive he has many more at bats vs. Pedro 55 to be exact while Howard is just 2-12 vs. Burnett. I'm taking A- Rod to get walked a bunch and hits will come as well possibly a home run.
Jeter, Possibly a hitter that has seen Pedro more than anyone with 86 AB. His averages are not impressive with .256, but the experience is there and this is not the same Pedro. Victorino 1-6 off Burnett.
